The Green Wave
The latest Philippine Supreme Court decision on the Impeachment Trial of Vice President Sara Duterte is a landmark on the road that leads to the Philippines' 2028 presidential elections.
The latest Supreme Court decision on the Impeachment trial of Sara Duterte was a clear win for the Vice President. As noted in a June 2025 assessment on Impeachment, Pinks needed a big show of Force to put the fear of God on the Senate. Unfortunately, Pinks were unable to muster a show of Force. An Akbayan assessment on protest rally size publicly stated that the crowd was 10 thousand strong. This was not big enough for a coalition coming out of 2025 with a big win. Had the numbers been 50 thousand or bigger and there was a physical manifestation of outrage maybe it would have put the fear of God on politicians. As it stands, the Greens simply were galvanised by the lack of opposition as well as the need to protect VP Sara Duterte. They showed grit and determination and it is manifested by exerting political power and momentum.
The Philippine Senate will have to take up the matter of impeachment given the latest Supreme Court decision on Impeachment. If they do not, then the Legislature as an institution will be weaker. Legal luminaries will put it into better legalise. The law states the Senate is the ultimate arbiter of impeachment. If they don’t assert their right then they become weaker as an institution. Congress will be weaker. Impeachment as a tool to hold officials accountable will be weaker moving forward. The DDS will use the win as an example that the rule of law is on their side. They will argue, “if the law doesn’t work for Pinks and/or Reds, you throw a tantrum?”
2028 is clearly in everyone’s mind. Marcos is focused on governance. Perhaps, to shore up his legacy. Whether he succeeds or not to address core economic issues like inflation and wages or whether he is interested in addressing that at all, benefits or not, real people. Marcos can assert himself globally, on foreign policy, which he has successfully done so. However, as the saying goes, “it’s the economy, stupid!” For Marcos to succeed as President will require his government to address economic issues. At the end of the day, Marcos will appear, whether true or not, as a lame duck.
It is clear that all political forces are focused on 2028. Whether Marcos will try to assert himself politically remains to be seen. It is in his best interest to have a Pro-Marcos successor or at least someone who will not bother him after he steps down from the presidency. After all, the Dutertes remain an existential threat to Marcos himself.
There will be people who wouldn’t want to be on Vice President Sara Duterte’s bad side when she wins the presidency. Fear is a good motivator. This is seen from the latest Supreme Court decision where the Dutertes flexed their political muscle. Isko Moreno likewise indicated a political preference for the Dutertes. The list can go on and on, and only serves as a precursor that political alliances are coalescing.
The last election showed us the political map for 2028. Vice President Sara Duterte or Senator Bong Go can win without winning Lingayen-Lucena Corridor so long as they hold Viz-Min and maybe not lose a lot in Balance of Luzon.
So there are two paths forward for those opposing the Greens. First, some way, some how, VP Sara is taken off the map — ICC or another impeachment trial in 2026. Second, Pinks or Reds will need to coalesce and decide now who to field in 2028.
As a force, the controversy that Kiko Pangilinan and Bam Aquino recently found themselves embroiled weakened Pinks as a whole. Whomever decided to insist on “strategic nuance” read the room, wrongly. Optics-wise Pinks should have stayed as a group, together. If the goal was 2028 such a move was the worst possible choice they could have done. The breakup revealed cracks in the Pink coalition. 2025 was a prelude to 2028 and whatever short term goals that could be achieved by choosing to be independent nation states would prove to be more of a hindrance than a win. 2025 was a royal rumble, a game of thrones that curled the pack for the eventual match in 2028.
For Pinks, governance will matter less than propaganda. There’s probably a year to do governance work for Pinks in power. The Greens won’t care about governance. They will continue on their path of using religious iconography for their base as Bato dela Rosa and other Greens assert in their public posts. The Greens are likewise casting Rodrigo Duterte into a martyr. The religious iconography strikes to the heart of Filipino psyche. They are using the tools of religion as a matter of community building to hold their supporters together. The Greens simply understand Filipinos, better.
Marcos will continue imho to focus on governance. How that shapes out will remain an open question. Should he succeed, will it be enough to back his own candidate in a 2028 world? This remains a question mark, for now.
As a country, the Philippines’ long term interest will be weakened by a shift towards China in a post-2028 world. The Philippines will lose more in terms of alliances and standing in the world. It’s a multipolar geopolitical world where the U.S. is slowly withdrawing from the world stage, weakening Pax Americana. While the Philippines does lean heavily on its U.S. alliance, the country’s stand on the West Philippine Sea makes it friends with the rest of the free world like Japan, the E.U., Australia and so on. It would be damaging for a second Duterte presidency to shift the Philippines back to Beijing.
It would be important as a long term goal for the Philippines to balance and nurture alliances outside the United States. First, it would be important to maintain and find a way to for the Philippines to strategically stand on its own by affording its own national defence. Second, maintain alliances outside the U.S.
The Philippines can never afford to match the Chinese, militarily. The Chinese are a Great Power. They have more money and more resources, but alliances to deter aggression backed by some measure of military strength or moxie would be important. A pivot to Beijing in a hypothetical post-2028 world where Sara Duterte is president will simply be against the long term interest of the Philippines.
The midterms showed the political class precisely how polarized Filipinos are as a people. It is North versus South. And the South has the advantage. This is also revealed in Impeachment trial polling and on hypothetical 2028 race where Sara Duterte leads in the South, but weaker in the North.
In a one-on-one matchup with either Bam Aquino, Leni Robredo or Risa Hontiveros versus Sara Duterte in 2028, the Greens simply have the advantage. A Marcos candidate or Erwin Tulfo or Raffy Tulfo will eat from Pinks’ Luzon advantage. The Tulfos will likely take Palawan and North Eastern Luzon, further weakening Pinks.
The advantage is with the Dutertes. The Greens simply found a path forward to win without Lingayen-Lucena corridor. The Greens will need to hold everything from Cebu and south of Cebu to the whole of Mindanao to win. They will need to win parts of Luzon or at least place a close second and that’s what it will take to win the presidency.
The Greens are more unified vis-a-vis Pinks. They can field Sara-Go in 2028. If VP Sara should fall, they can either field Bong Go-Imee or Bong Go-Robin or Imee-Robin should Bong Go himself be dragged to ICC. Imee Marcos has presidential ambitions, but if she somehow sticks with the Greens and uses her network to undermine Balance of Luzon for Pinks/pro-admin then that again further weakens candidates fielded by Pinks or Marcos.
The Dutertes are an existential threat to the long term collective interest of Filipinos. The Dutertes clearly have the advantage for the moment. They have the momentum. The tides shift and turn and three years is a long time. Both Pinks and Reds are on their back-foot. Whether either Pinks or Reds are able to regain the momentum remains to be seen. In 2024 the political headwinds were against the Dutertes and in half a year they were able to turn that around. The political headwinds are now on the Reds and Pinks. The Greens have grit neither the Pinks nor the Reds seem to have at the moment. That could make all the difference.